Plan with a view of what may happen.
Forecasts
Use historical records to estimate demand, payment timing and other outcomes. Review the range and supporting data alongside the current business position.
How much stock might we need next month?
Use the demand history to estimate a range, then review current stock, lead times and known orders before making a purchase decision.
What demand should we plan around?
A forecast adds a range to the planning discussion.
ForecastingIllustrative records| Measure | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Expected demand | 124 units | Central estimate |
| Planning range | 100–148 units | Uncertainty remains |
| Available stock | 104 units | Current recorded position |
Review the forecast alongside lead time and confirmed orders.
The estimate informs the replenishment decision. It does not automatically approve a purchase or guarantee future demand.
- Yes or no — will this invoice be disputed, is this item likely to come back, which team should handle this ticket.
- How much — demand for a product, the cash you can expect to collect, the final cost of a job.
- How long — until this is paid, or how long this job will really take, which isn’t the same as the average of jobs already finished.
- A likely range rather than a bare confidence score, because you can plan around a range.
- Early warnings — what looks unusual now, and also what is heading towards a problem.
- Saying when it can’t tell — if there isn’t enough data, it gives no number and says why, rather than making one up.
What comes with every forecast.
Each forecast keeps enough detail to be checked long after it was useful.
- What it is about — the customer, product or job, and the figure being forecast.
- When it was made, and the latest data it used — two different dates, so information that arrived late can be seen rather than hidden.
- The estimate, its range and its unit — the unit always stated, and the estimate left blank if it couldn’t make one.
- Whether the range has been checked against what really happened, how and when. It is never just assumed.
- The simple estimate it is compared with, always recorded, so you can see whether the forecast beat the obvious answer.
- Reasons and data warnings, including why it gave no number.
- Which version made it, and from which data, so it can be reproduced.
- When it was made and when it expires — an out-of-date forecast isn’t shown, so it can’t quietly keep advising you.
- Its status — on trial, advisory, in use or retired.
A forecast advises. It never decides.
A forecast can’t grant permission, post to your accounts, set tax or approve anything. If one is missing, invalid, out of date or unavailable, the system carries on without it rather than breaking or showing a zero. A new forecast runs on trial out of sight first, so it can be measured before anyone relies on it. One that stops beating the simple estimate is taken out of use.
Where knowing what’s coming would change what you do today.
- “When will this actually arrive?” — the supplier’s real delivery time as a range, not the date copied from the order.
- “Which customers are about to leave?” — with a range, so a borderline case looks borderline.
- “How much of this will we sell?” — demand by product, feeding safety stock and reordering.
- “Will this be paid on time?” — the expected payment date, which is a question of when as well as whether.
- “Is this job going to overrun?” — an early warning while the job is still going.
Frequently asked questions.
Does a forecast ever change my accounts?
Never. Forecasts are advice. Only the accounting part of Cobalt ERP writes to your books, and it doesn’t read forecasts.
What is the simple estimate for?
So you can answer “is this forecast earning its place?” from the record, not from a memory of how the trial went. Every forecast stores what the obvious alternative would have said.
Why a range rather than a percentage?
Because you can act on a range. “Between eleven and nineteen days” changes what you promise a customer. “87% confident” doesn’t.
What happens when there is not enough data?
It gives no number and says why. That is more useful than a figure made up to fill the gap.
Does it learn from my corrections?
It records what actually happened and checks its forecasts against it. It also records when a suggestion was shown to you, so the effect of its own advice isn’t mistaken for skill.
Try it on your own records.
Book a demo and ask it a real question about your business. Every answer shows how it was worked out and which records it used.
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